Distinguished agricultural economist Ashok Gulati believes that despite the new reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, India may maintain or even grow its agricultural exports to the US.

According to Gulati, a former chair of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), the Trump administration's 26% "discounted reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods would have less of an effect on important agricultural exports like rice and seafood than higher tariffs imposed on regional rivals.

Gulati advised them to consider relative rate hikes with their rivals rather than absolute tariff rises, according to the PTI report. He emphasized that Indian exporters had an 8% comparative advantage since China has 34% tariffs while India confronts 26%.

Higher hurdles are faced by other rivals, including Bangladesh (37%), Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%), and Vietnam (46%).

Gulati clarified that India's comparative tariff advantage and shrimp's small proportion of total US food expenditures indicate that demand for seafood exports, in particular, should be steady.

According to Gulrej Alam, general secretary of the Shrimp Feed Manufacturers Association of India, India exports around half of its 9 lakh tons of shrimp annually to the United States.

Noting that this change pertains to Indian shrimp production, Alam predicts a slight short-term setback due to a 10% tariff reduction placed on Ecuador, which is also one of the main exporters of shrimp to the United States.

Ecuador gains from being close to the United States. However, Alam said that India has better bulk handling capabilities and packaging quality. He said that the transaction will be rerouted in the near future. Trade won't be difficult in the long run, but.

Even with the hike to 26%, India is still competitive when it comes to rice exports, where the US now levies tariffs of 9%. According to Vijay Sethia, the previous president of the All India Rice Exporters Association, India sells between 250,000 and 300,000 tons of rice to the United States each year. Sethia mentioned that the 26 percent tariff on all rice varieties will hinder exports in the short term but could benefit them long term, impacting American consumers.