One of the most reliable and up-to-date sources of information, projections, and analysis on the international oil market is the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR).

January witnessed a whirlwind of global oil markets as several pressure points gave way to the year's dramatically higher prices. Early in January, prices rose as a result of concerns about the effects of new sanctions on Iran and Russia as well as possible supply chain interruptions.

In the face of escalating trade disputes and their effects on the rate of increase in oil consumption, the market mood swiftly turned to fresh worries about the global economy. As global trade tensions increased, ICE Brent future prices dropped down to about $75/bbl after rising $8/bbl to a five-month peak above $82/bbl in early January.

After a little lowering of 2024 growth to 870 kb/d, the prediction for this year's rise in world oil consumption has been slightly raised to 1.1 mb/d. Despite a decline in temperatures that impacted all OECD areas as well as China, 4Q24 demand was weaker than anticipated. November deliveries in the US were very poor, down by 510 kb/d year over year, the worst since June.

China leads growth in 2025, despite its portion of the worldwide rise falling to 19% from 60% in the previous decade, which was solely driven by the petrochemical industry. With a combined growing contribution of 500 kb/d, India and other Asian countries are providing an increasing amount.

It is still too soon to predict how trade flows would react to potential or actual additional US tariffs, as well as the long-term effects of tightening sanctions on Russia and Iran. However, oil markets have often demonstrated incredible adaptability and tenacity in the face of significant obstacles.