The South African National Defence Force faces parliamentary scrutiny over funding demands, force structure, and long-term affordability concerns surrounding JTG.

The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) faces growing questions over the affordability and structure of its proposed future force design, as Parliament’s Research Unit warns that the Journey to Greatness (JTG) plan could eventually require defence spending of up to 4.6 percent of GDP.

Parliament Questions JTG’s Long-Term Structure

A briefing prepared for the Joint Standing Committee on Defence (JSCD) has raised concerns about whether the JTG represents a gradual expansion of one force or a series of fundamentally different force designs. The assessment was prepared ahead of the committee’s closed meeting at Youngsfield Military Base in Cape Town on August 28, 2026.

The proposed framework includes four overlapping phases. The first involves immediate interventions supported by a once-off R9 billion gearing package. The second targets internal safeguarding operations at 1.5 percent of GDP, followed by regional operations at 2.4 percent. The final phase would establish a major combat capability, described as a Limited War Force, requiring 4.6 percent of GDP.

Defence Funding Model Faces Scrutiny

The parliamentary briefing has urged MPs to examine the assumptions behind a commissioned 30-year financial model. These include expected GDP growth, defence acquisition requirements and the long-term affordability of major military programs.

The analysis also questions whether planners are designing the required military capability first and calculating its cost afterward, or developing the force around an assumed funding limit. This distinction could significantly affect the final cost of the SANDF future force design.

Key concerns highlighted by the briefing include:

  • JTG could ultimately require 4.6 percent of GDP.

  • Parliament seeks clarity on each force development phase.

  • Personnel costs currently consume most defence spending.

  • Long-term acquisition costs require detailed financial modeling.

  • Funding projections provided to Parliament remain inconsistent.

Structural Reform Seen as Critical

The briefing notes that around 70 percent of the defence budget is currently consumed by personnel costs. As a result, simply allocating more money may not automatically produce stronger military capabilities unless accompanying structural reforms improve how resources are used.

The Journey to Greatness defence plan has also generated questions because different statements have suggested varying long-term funding targets. While one parliamentary response placed the goal at 1.5 percent of GDP, another outlined a progression from the current 0.67 percent toward 1.35 percent, 1.57 percent, 1.90 percent and eventually 2.40 percent over 30 years.

Parliament is therefore expected to examine what capabilities each milestone would deliver, how force structures would evolve and whether national finances could sustain the programme.

Thus, Business Fortune believes that the SANDF’s ambitious future force requires clear priorities, credible funding, structural reform, and stronger parliamentary oversight.

FAQs

Why is Parliament questioning the Journey to Greatness plan?

Parliament is seeking greater clarity on the plan’s force structure, long-term costs, funding assumptions and achievable defence capabilities.

How much could the Journey to Greatness plan cost?

The final proposed phase could require defence spending of up to 4.6 percent of South Africa’s GDP.

What are the four phases of the JTG plan?

The phases cover immediate interventions, internal safeguarding, regional operations and the development of a major combat capability.

Why are SANDF personnel costs a concern?

Personnel expenses consume about 70 percent of the defence budget, limiting the impact of additional funding without structural reforms.

What does Parliament want from the defence funding model?

Parliament wants capability-based costing that clearly connects proposed military capabilities with their actual financial and resource requirements.